Forecasting Prices in Regime-Switching Markets

Forecasting Crude Oil prices Volatility and Value at Risk: Single and Switching Regime GARCH Models

Forecasting crude oil price volatility is an important issues in risk management. The historical course of oil price volatility indicates the existence of a cluster pattern. Therefore, GARCH models are used to model and more accurately predict oil price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to identify the best GARCH model with the best performance in different time horizons. To achieve th...

Regime Switching Models for Markets

Search for structure in the financial markets has recently become an active field of research by scientists from different areas of expertise. The Efficient-Market Hypothesis states that the markets reflect all publically available information within their price. This also means that no profit higher than the average market returns allow can be gained using only the price information. However, ...

Modeling Electricity Prices with Regime Switching Models

We address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices with regime switching models. After reviewing the stylized facts about power markets we propose and fit various models to spot prices from the Nordic power exchange. Afterwards we assess their performance by comparing simulated and market prices. 1 Electricity Spot Prices: Markets and Models The deregulation of the power industry has give...

Power Prices – A Regime - Switching Spot / Forward Price Model

Investment/Consumption Problem in Illiquid Markets with Regime-Switching

The illiquid market model HJB equations and characterization of the solution Power utility functions and numerical results